Electric cars: Is lithium for batteries becoming scarce?

The metal lithium is also known as "white gold" because it is so sought-after as a raw material. Rechargeable lithium-ion batteries power not only cell phones and laptops, but also most electric cars. Researchers from China, Sweden, and Norway have now modeled how lithium production and demand will develop in the coming years in a new study . They warn that a shortage could be imminent as early as 2030. The results were published on Thursday in the journal Cell Reports Sustainability.

Lithium can be extracted either from lithium-bearing salt lakes or from rock. Important intermediates on the way to battery production are the chemical compounds lithium carbonate and the lithium hydroxide derived from it. To estimate how much lithium will come onto the market in the coming years, the study authors evaluated, among other things, press releases, feasibility studies, and statistical reports on mining projects.

They compared these with estimates of how demand will develop in Europe, China, and the USA, three major markets for electromobility, in the coming years. To predict lithium demand, they based their analysis on scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on how electric vehicle sales will develop. Various assumptions regarding lithium demand for batteries were taken into account.

Ultimately, 16 different scenarios for lithium production and demand in the aforementioned markets in the near future were calculated. The study's modeling concludes that shortages could arise in all three regions considered as early as 2030. This is despite companies having announced plans to increase their production. China may even be able to do so without lithium imports, the publication states. Europe and the USA, on the other hand, are more dependent on international trade.

Experts explained the study's findings to the Science Media Center (SMC). Marcel Weil, research group leader at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), told the SMC that the modeling result is not surprising. Other publications have already shown similar results.

He sees a "fundamental problem" in the fact that the price of lithium is currently very low, the expert said. "Investors are reluctant to invest in new mines because of this and other market risks. This is a major problem, as mines require a lead time of five to 15 years before they can actually produce lithium," Weil said. How much prices might rise in the event of a future shortage is not yet foreseeable.

However, sodium-based battery technologies are already available as an alternative. These could be "produced on an industrial scale in China very soon." Furthermore, there are still large lithium deposits in Bolivia, for example, that could be mined economically if the lithium price rises.

Weil also pointed out that some factors were not included in the calculations, such as the possibility of recovering lithium through recycling. There are also potential new sources: "For example, Australia, as the largest exporter of the raw material lithium, could build more of its own processing capacities or enter into processing partnerships and thus offer lithium products for global trade itself," the expert said.

Furthermore, the modeling did not take into account that lithium batteries require other "critical" raw materials, such as natural or synthetic graphite, which are in limited supply. All of this could limit the modeling's validity.

It is unclear how electric car production will actually develop in the long term. Producers often "plan very optimistically," said Christoph Neef, a research associate at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Karlsruhe. On the other hand, various scenarios are being simulated in the modeling. "The core finding of the study—increasing lithium demand and an uncertain supply situation—should therefore be taken seriously," Neef told the SMC.

However, Neef also assumes that a lithium shortage is unlikely to affect the aforementioned markets in China, Europe, and the USA, as raw materials are traded worldwide. "If global demand exceeds global supply, there will be a supply shortage of electric vehicles or batteries where the least affluent end customers are located. Experience shows that this is not the case in Europe or the USA," the expert says.

With material from the Science Media Center.