Trump is tying the tech companies to himself. This is damaging Europe – and could strengthen China and Russia

It is a symbol of Trump's power. At the beginning of January, Mark Zuckerberg appeared in front of the camera and spent a good five minutes explaining the turnaround of his company Meta. On the platforms Facebook and Instagram , the moderation of content would be adjusted and fact checkers would be abolished .

The announcement sparked discussions about the meaning of fact-checking, about "free speech" and disinformation. However, the significance of the appearance goes far beyond the organizational changes at Meta. In the video, Zuckerberg submits to the policies of the new President Donald Trump - even before he took office.

The meta-boss is not the only one. American tech companies have been aggressively seeking proximity to the new ruler in the White House for weeks . This development poses risks - for the USA and the entire Western world.

It has always been a myth that technologies are apolitical. But the connections between large corporations and the American government have reached a new level.

Last year, billionaire Elon Musk bought his way into Trump's election campaign with donations of at least $250 million . Today, the head of Tesla, SpaceX and Platform X is a close advisor to the president with extensive powers and prominent appearances at Trump's side. In the fall, Amazon boss Jeff Bezos prevented the editorial board from making an election recommendation in the Washington Post, which he owns.

The new intimacy between the tech companies and Trump's politics was evident at the inauguration ceremony on January 20. In prominent seats, directly behind Trump's family members, sat the heads of Amazon, Google, Meta and Apple - and of course Musk.

The close ties raise fears that the US could enter a new era of "crony capitalism," a time in which business leaders use their connections to politics to gain economic advantages. This danger is particularly acute for Elon Musk, whose company Space X also receives contracts from the American government.

However, the tech giants’ proximity to Trump is particularly tricky when coupled with his policies.

The American president is pursuing a consistent geopolitics of strength. The interests of the USA come above all else. Even cooperation with traditional allies such as Great Britain or Germany is in danger of breaking down.

Trump's policies could destroy the existing Western community of values ​​and further weaken the rules-based world order. Such a development is particularly dangerous in the technological sector, where interconnectedness and global dependencies are high.

The following three scenarios show how Trump's policies could influence or even instrumentalize technology and what dangers this would pose for Europe and the rest of the world.

Technology has played an important role in the trade war with China for years. The USA has imposed export restrictions on chips and banned Chinese technology from Huawei, for example, from its telecom networks. Possibilities for escalation are conceivable in the future: the USA could also impose restrictions on Western countries and extend these to online services.

Europe is now dependent on numerous services from American tech companies: email solutions, cloud services or AI applications. The trend for years has been to obtain applications "as a service", i.e. from the cloud. As a result, companies and authorities are increasingly using services that run in the data centers of providers such as Google, Microsoft or Amazon and no longer on their own servers. This gives the tech companies greater power.

Trump could block these services - depending on his political intentions for certain countries or individual companies. So far he has mainly threatened to introduce tariffs to achieve his goals. But that doesn't work for services. Other means of pressure are needed. Access to American online services would be one such instrument that an angry Trump could resort to.

The risk of Europe’s technological dependence will become significantly greater under Trump.

Strength alone counts for little in cyberspace. To be able to effectively fend off cyber attacks, knowledge, creativity and cooperation are needed. In recent years, the USA has recognized that IT security needs partners - and they have adapted their strategies accordingly .

But that could change. One possible scenario is that Trump will also rely on the "America First" approach in the area of ​​cybersecurity and reduce international cooperation. Under Biden's presidency, the military cyber command has repeatedly supported partner states in the fight against cyber attacks. American cybersecurity companies have been active in Ukraine for years and are providing important assistance there.

Trump could scale back or even stop this commitment. The American authorities could stop sharing information about the attackers' actions with their partners. It is also conceivable that the administration could even instruct IT security companies to withhold their findings about vulnerabilities so that intelligence agencies can use them for their own attacks.

The USA is currently heavily involved in combating criminal ransomware attacks. It is unclear what the activities here will look like in the future. In a bad scenario, Trump will agree with Putin that criminal gangs should spare the USA from their cyber attacks. This would mean a deterioration for the rest of the world. Today, American investigators are making a significant contribution to breaking up cybercriminal structures in internationally coordinated actions.

If the US withdraws from international activities, this will harm cybersecurity worldwide. In such a scenario, the international exchange of information would decline. The autocratic states of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea would be able to carry out their cyber operations more unhindered.

A trend is already apparent on social platforms: no fact-checking and less moderation of content. In doing so, the tech companies are following Donald Trump, who himself does not place much value on facts. They are selling the new approach as "free speech".

If American platforms reduce their moderation, the fight against foreign influence operations will suffer. Russian actors in particular are already actively spreading polarizing narratives and misinformation.

What reduced moderation of content can lead to can be seen on the X platform, which belongs to Musk. According to a Russian disinformation company, X is "the only platform that is currently useful ."

The platforms play an important role in detecting and disrupting foreign influence campaigns. Without their help, the fight against disinformation will be difficult.

In addition, the American intelligence services will probably scale back their actions to expose foreign influence - as they successfully did last autumn. The new intelligence coordinator is herself spreading false Russian narratives . Western states will no longer trust the American authorities and their assessments in the future.

In such a scenario, disinformation and foreign influence on social platforms will increase. Polarizing trends in Europe would receive additional impetus. The population's trust in democratic institutions and politics could continue to dwindle.

Democracies would be weakened overall. Authoritarian states such as Russia and China could expand their global influence.

The Trump 2.0 era is accelerating the disintegration of the liberal world order. The confrontation between democratic states and autocracies is intensifying. There are fears that the USA no longer wants to play the role of the central pillar in the democratic camp.

This development is a challenge for Europe: politically, militarily, but also technologically. The three scenarios show this. Technology will play a central role in the conflict between democracies and autocracies. And Europe will no longer be able to rely on the USA in the future.