Two future scenarios: Heaven and Hell

In our last few articles, we talked about the basic issues related to artificial intelligence in a very brief way.

In this article, I would like to talk about one of the questions I am most asked: “What kind of future awaits us?”

I want to answer this question with the risks and opportunities I see in the short, medium, and long term. For now, we'll focus solely on AI, but know that there are other significant technological developments that will impact our future—I'll discuss them in future articles.

Of course, it's very difficult to make predictions about the future, so I encourage you to be skeptical and question everything written here. But know that what I write isn't a figment of my imagination; it's a data-based prediction, derived from the analysis of clear trends and the combined insights of experts.

SHORT TERM (5-10 YEARS)

Trend one: AI will become increasingly intelligent.

This seems almost certain. All the major AI companies are emphasizing that the models they produce will become more intelligent.

And so far, they've been right: AI models are steadily getting smarter.

In fact, the latest OpenAI and Google models have reached a level that could win gold medals in mathematics Olympiads.

The second trend: These systems have begun to autonomously perform assigned tasks themselves, and this will continue to grow. This means they will move from simply answering questions to proactively monitoring and completing assigned tasks.

(If you'd like to try this, click "agent mode" in ChatGPT and make a request like "I'm looking for a pair of sneakers with good price-performance ratio. I'll use them in the summer. Size 44." Then watch what happens.)

The third trend: AI systems are increasingly hearing better, speaking better (and more realistically), and seeing better. This means you don't just have to write; you can also communicate your concerns through speaking or showing.

And the fourth trend: Artificial intelligence systems don't just solve problems; they draw increasingly realistic pictures, produce videos, produce music, etc. In other words, we are now in a world where we can produce anything we imagine by simply describing what we want.

These trends—the increasing intelligence of AI models, their ability to complete tasks autonomously, their increased abilities to see, hear, and speak, and their ability to produce images, videos, and music—present us with both significant opportunities and risks. Given our limited space, I'll only discuss some key opportunities and risks, but it's important to understand that these lists are much broader.

OPPORTUNITIES

• We will now carry "superior" technology in our mobile phones, making us excellent mathematicians, chemists, historians, doctors, and many other fields. This means the cost of accessing expert expertise and deep knowledge will be virtually zero.
• The ability of these systems to complete tasks autonomously will make even the laziest of us productive. All we have to do is say, "Do this," and AI will do the rest.
• Every child will have access to a personalized "artificial teacher" at very low cost. Each child will grow up much better educated, knowledgeable, and cultured.
• Even today, we can discuss history, philosophy, astronomy, quantum physics, and any other topic we choose in depth, or ask them to complete a task, with AI systems that don't judge us and are getting to know us better. This will increasingly evolve into a "my best friend and helper" technology.

RISKS

• While AI systems are becoming increasingly intelligent and provide more accurate information, they can still make mistakes. These mistakes can lead to tragic situations (e.g., incorrect treatment recommendations, incorrect investment guidance, etc.).
• You picked up the phone, spoke a few words, your voice was recorded and transcribed, and your closest contacts were automatically called with your voice, saying, "Send this amount of money to the IBAN I need to give you very urgently." We'll be hearing more and more about this kind of fraudulent activity.
• AI-generated photos and videos were distributed, with slogans like "Look who this person is with," manipulating public perceptions. I'm sure no politician in our country would do such things!
• Some professions are at risk of disappearing entirely. For example, I write these lines with my own hand, one by one. But in the future, we'll probably treat those who write like this as mere miniaturists practicing an ancient craft.
• Medium term (10-30 years) As artificial intelligence becomes more and more intelligent, we will probably reach ASI (artificial super-intelligence), that is, artificial intelligence systems that can make discoveries and, in a sense, expand the boundaries of science like Einstein (according to some estimates, within 10 years).
• And this will have incredible consequences for humanity... Because unlike the real Einstein, we will have the opportunity to create millions of these digital Einsteins at the same time and assign them to solve many problems.

OPPORTUNITIES

• Humanity will likely be constantly introduced to new, mind-boggling inventions. Just as figures like Newton and Einstein were able to do in their time, we will make great strides in uncovering the secrets of the universe.
• With the discovery of new treatments and medications, many diseases that currently preoccupy us will become history. Human lifespans will be extended.
• We will be able to communicate easily with everyone, everything and in every language.
• We will somehow “merge” with AI, and our speed of thought will approach that of AI.

RISKS

• Weapons and diseases of a kind we have never encountered before will become available.
• The company(ies) or country(ies) that own ASI will have the power to easily destroy any competitor they choose.
• Long term (30+ years) There are two possible scenarios in this timeframe. At the risk of sounding a bit like science fiction, I'll keep it very brief.

HEAVEN

A wonderful life where all work is done by AI (and robots), diseases and even aging are eliminated, and everyone lives in abundance.

All risks associated with artificial intelligence have been eliminated; there is harmony, understanding, and cooperation between us and this new being. As Professor Geoffrey Hinton hoped, (super) AI approaches us humans with motherly compassion and wants us to be well and happy. And we are truly happy.

HELL

Very difficult days await humanity, either as a result of humans using artificial intelligence for their evil purposes or as a result of the superior artificial intelligence that has gained consciousness saying, "It's time to retire humans."

I'd like to remind those who think it's impossible for technology to advance this far: today, humanity can open and look inside an atom, fly into space and wave, design new living things, and talk to an inanimate machine (a mobile phone) and get advice from it (an artificial intelligence application). These were also "impossible" 100 years ago.

'SMART MONEY TECHNOLOGIES': THE FUTURE OF FINANCE IN OUR POCKETS

We are in a time when our leather wallets and the cash they contain are slowly becoming a memory. In the near future, when we talk about "money," we won't think of a physical object, but rather an app on our smartphones. The financial world is on the verge of a radical revolution we might call "Smart Money Technologies." This transformation has two main drivers: digital currencies and artificial intelligence. Central banks are accelerating their preparations to introduce their own digital currencies, a kind of "digital lira." We can think of these currencies, which have no physical counterpart, as internet-based, electronic assets. This could enable us to transfer money in seconds and at much lower costs. However, the real change begins when this new form of money brings with it AI-powered solutions.

Artificial intelligence has the potential to revolutionize our financial lives. Imagine a personal finance assistant that analyzes your spending, offers personalized budget recommendations, and analyzes risk when investing. Or a cashier-free, card-free shopping experience where you can pay by simply scanning your face at a store. It's likely that such technologies will become a part of our lives in the near future.

AI algorithms also act as a financial guardian angel by detecting financial fraud in real time. They can instantly spot abnormal spending and block suspicious transactions.

This technological advancement has the potential to greatly enhance our lives. But there's another side to the coin: privacy. The fact that every financial step we take leaves a digital trail also brings with it the possibility that all our spending and money flows can be monitored by a central authority (and by those who have secretly compromised that central authority's systems). Will this new, smart form of money be a tool that will make our lives easier, or a control tool that will restrict our financial freedom?

The answer to this question will depend less on the technology itself than on how we design and organize it.