The new means of transport is getting closer

• Flying taxis were supposed to be one of the biggest attractions at the Osaka Expo. The drones are present there, but they are used on a much smaller scale than originally planned.
• It wasn't the technical problems of the vehicles that were to blame, but rather safety procedures. The flying taxis haven't yet received all the necessary certificates.
• In China, the local leader in the flying car sector is gaining momentum and is preparing to launch commercial services later this year.
• Flying vehicles are seen there as one of the engines of economic development.

Expo 2025 opened its doors on April 13 and will be available in Osaka for six months. Initially, the autonomous multi-rotor aircraft were supposed to shuttle passengers between parts of the vast World Expo grounds, as well as offer tourist flights around Osaka. So far, Japanese startup SkyDrive has only conducted a demonstration flight. The company’s three-passenger flying vehicle rose five meters into the air and stayed in the air for three minutes.

Lack of certificates grounded flying taxis

The Osaka air taxi project may yet be salvaged. SkyDrive is planning more demonstration flights in July and August. Japanese multi-industry conglomerate Marubeni and ANA, the country's largest airline, are also planning their own air shows. Marubeni will demonstrate two flying taxis, a one-person model developed by the US-based Lift Aircraft and a five-person model by the UK-based Vertical Aerospace. ANA, in turn, will use a five-person model designed by the holding's US partner Joby Aviation.

Why such a limitation of ambitious plans? It was not the technical problems of the vehicles that were to blame, but safety issues. Flying taxis have not yet received all the necessary certificates . Market regulators are facing a completely new issue. Admitting air vehicles to traffic is indeed a matter that requires a cautious approach. However, the Expo is an opportunity to present Japan as an innovative technological powerhouse, which in the case of flying taxis will not be fully exploited.

The Japanese industry pioneers are optimistic, however. Like the Expo organizers, they hope the exhibition will help popularize the idea of ​​urban helicopters . ANA aims to launch commercial services in the Tokyo metropolitan area in 2027 or early 2028 at the latest. Competitor Japan Airlines plans to start such services in Osaka at the same time. SkyDrive, in turn, plans to offer tourist flights in Osaka and the surrounding area from 2028.

The Chinese are in the lead

China is the only country to have adopted a comprehensive strategy aimed at creating a "low-altitude economy." Work on appropriate legal regulations allowing flying cars to fly in urban areas began in 2021. The Chinese market leader in this field, EHang, received a license to operate its two-seater autonomous multi-rotor EH216-S in October 2023. In parallel, work was underway to create the appropriate logistics and infrastructure. Startups developing flying taxis benefited from Chinese achievements in the field of electric and autonomous cars. Thanks to this, companies gained easy access to the appropriate batteries, engines and software.

The results are such that commercial services could start this year . EHang intends to launch tourist flights in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, and Hefei, Anhui Province. The routes will be operated by EH216-S. The flights themselves will take place along pre-programmed routes, which is supposed to reduce the risk of accidents.

There is also the question of the cost of such pleasure. Vice President He Tianxing admits that the price of the flight has not yet been set , but the goal is to make flying cars a mass means of transport. The service is therefore to be affordable.

EHang is also starting to talk about stabilizing its finances. The startup's revenue in 2024 was 456 million yuan (PLN 234.6 million) , which means a four-fold increase compared to the previous year. Net losses also decreased, from 302 million yuan (PLN 155.4 million) in 2023 to 230 million yuan (PLN 118.3 million) last year. Progress is therefore visible, although the company is still generating losses, which is related to large expenditures on research and development.

The ambitions are greater. If it succeeds in Guangzhou and Hefei, EHang intends to expand its service network to other cities in China, as well as to conquer foreign markets. The company is particularly interested in Thailand, where the authorities are said to be particularly open to the implementation of flying cars. The EH216-S performed several demonstration flights there in November with passengers on board.

"Low-Elevation Economy"

China is the only country that has embarked on developing a comprehensive strategy for the development and implementation of flying cars. It also includes the development of appropriate logistics facilities, infrastructure, and a flight control system. Work on creating appropriate regulations began at the end of the previous decade. Why is the government so interested? The developing industry of autonomous flying vehicles has been considered a future industry. The achievements to date in the field of batteries and software designed for electromobility provide an advantage over the competition.

From a practical perspective, moving some of the traffic into the air is supposed to improve traffic in cities. Flying taxis are just one element of a larger whole. In addition to passenger traffic, freight transport is an attractive option. EHang tested flying "delivery vans" in 2020. Competing AutoFlight, a startup from Shanghai, already has a two-ton CarryAll flying truck in its offer.

The potential benefits may be even more visible outside cities. Autonomous drones can improve transport to remote locations. Particularly high hopes are pinned on medical transport. Although unmanned flying ambulances still seem like a distant future, the transport of medicines has been successfully tested in China for several years. The startup Antwork Hangzhou can already boast considerable achievements in this field, although mainly in its hometown. The company's drones transport not only medicines, but also samples for testing.

Another area of ​​application for flying cars is combating the effects of natural disasters and extinguishing fires . As Japanese experience has shown, drones can quickly reach the site of a disaster, bringing the necessary supplies. They also need less landing space than helicopters. In addition, they are cheap to operate. AutoFlight offers a flying fire truck equipped with four 10 kg extinguishers each. According to the company, the autonomous drone is able to extinguish a fire in an area of ​​200 m2.

In early April, AutoFilght signed an agreement with the Hefei city government to create a "city air traffic system." As part of the agreement, the city government purchased flying trucks, fire extinguishers, and taxis. The Hefei government sees this as an opportunity to improve city logistics, communication, and crisis response, develop tourism, and develop connections with other cities.

Drones can also complement traditional aviation and rail in intercity transport. In February, the autonomous flying car Prosperity flew from Shenzhen to Zhuhai. If all necessary permits are obtained, AutoFlight aims to launch commercial passenger service on the route within two years. The flight path over the waters of the Pearl River Delta will reduce travel time between the two cities from 3 hours to just 20 minutes.

A large cake to share

The flying car market offers very good prospects in the medium and long term. Compared to earlier estimates, however, the prospects for real boom are currently being pushed back. In 2020, Morgan Stanley estimated that by 2040 its value could reach $1 trillion , and in 2050 - even $9 trillion. Current forecasts by the Canadian analytical company Precedence Research are more cautious. The global flying car market is to reach $170 billion by 2034. As you can see, technical development is slower than was assumed five years ago. Legislative work is also taking longer than flying car enthusiasts would like.

So there is something to fight for in building a position in this market for the future. China presents the most comprehensive approach, but in the short term, the Americans may also take the lead. Joby Aviation is to complete the certification process by the Federal Aviation Administration in the coming months. Once that happens, the company intends to launch commercial flying taxi services in Dubai by the end of this year .