Emissions reductions, financial issues and adaptation to climate change are the focus of the climate conference in Belém.

Ten years ago, governments adopted the Paris Climate Agreement. The deal was a milestone in multilateral diplomacy. The energy transition has been underway ever since. But resistance to the climate goals is also growing.

From Monday, the whole world will be sitting at the same table again. Regardless of whether governments are for or against stricter climate protection measures, they are all making the journey to Brazil.
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The US, too. While the Americans are withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, they can't seem to let go of climate negotiations. China has even announced a new climate target for 2035 in advance: the world's biggest polluter still plans to invest billions in clean technologies.
The format of multilateral climate negotiations is under pressure, but remains relevant. What's on the agenda this year? The NZZ has examined three aspects.
New climate targets are being demanded by the EU and other polluters.China plans to reduce its emissions by up to 10 percent by 2035: This is insufficient to meet the Paris climate goals. However, it marks the first time the world's largest polluter has formally committed to reducing emissions.
The EU, the world's fourth-largest emitter and self-proclaimed world champion of climate protection, has yet to announce a new emissions target. This is despite the fact that, according to the rules of the Paris Agreement, all governments were required this year to submit new climate targets for 2035.
The Europeans are not the only ones who missed the deadline. Many key countries still need to agree on new plans. Among them is India, whose emissions have been growing for years and which has now become the world's third-largest emitter, ahead of the EU.
The UN Climate Secretariat, the heart of the multilateral climate regime, recently published an initial analysis of the status of global emissions reductions. The analysis is limited, however, as it is based on plans that cover only about 30 percent of global emissions.
Nevertheless, it clearly demonstrates what is generally known: the planned emission reductions are far too small to achieve the climate targets. Emissions are still rising. Last year they reached a new record high , driven by India, Russia, Indonesia, and other growing emerging economies.
The latest figures make it clear: The 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement is no longer achievable for the time being, and clinging to it rhetorically is no longer credible. Researchers have been saying this for a long time, and now the UN has also begun to incorporate it into its speeches.
But the analysis of climate plans also shows that the energy transition is underway in many countries around the world. Thanks to these plans, emissions will fall by 10 percent over the next ten years compared to 2019 levels. This development, according to the UN, points in the right direction. The "enormous investment flows into clean energy in almost all major economies" are encouraging. For example, this year renewable energies overtook coal as the world's largest source of electricity.
The UN analysis also addresses the consequences of climate change. The world is already paying a high price for global warming, while simultaneously approaching a positive economic turning point. The negotiations in Belém will provide further clues as to whether and under what conditions the global energy transition will accelerate.
Adaptation to climate change is the focus
Maria Alejandra Cardona/Reuters
To remain credible, the climate conference must present solutions so that countries can better prepare themselves against floods, heat waves, forest fires, and droughts. Every road or school built with foresight for a hotter world demonstrates concretely why well-thought-out climate policies are relevant to everyday life.
Adapting to climate change is absolutely essential, wrote André Aranha Corrêa do Lago in October. It is just as important as the task of reducing emissions. The Brazilian diplomat is chairing this year's conference.
This shift – or rather, expansion – of climate policy priorities is important. And it has taken a long time for it to gain traction. For years, developing countries have been calling for a stronger focus on the urgent task of preparing their populations for the dangers of climate change.
People are not interested in climate policy jargon, wrote Corrêa do Lago. "They talk about flooded houses and crop failures, about the collapse of the local economy after storms, about destroyed schools and hospitals."
But activists and green-minded politicians downplayed the issue for years. They were concerned that focusing on emissions would take the pressure off the necessary reductions. This has primarily resulted in a long period of neglect for an issue that is increasingly vital for many countries.
Until now. Because for Brazil, adaptation is at the heart of this year's climate conference. After Hurricane Melissa ravaged the Caribbean last week and caused widespread suffering, the issue will also be an absolute priority for many other developing and emerging economies.
Trillions for climate protectionHowever, countries need significant financial resources to prepare for the risks of climate change. But investments in flood protection or heat-resistant infrastructure lag far behind what experts say is needed.
According to the UN, financing for these areas accounts for less than a third of total climate finance from industrialized nations. This "chronic underinvestment" exposes countries to risks and forces them to divert scarce resources from health, education, and infrastructure to emergency measures and reconstruction, wrote Corrêa do Lago.
Over the coming weeks, diplomats will negotiate how to increase financial support from governments and make investments more attractive for the private sector.
Brazil is working to put together a financial package for developing countries at the conference. The donors, said Corrêa do Lago, are a mix of wealthy industrialized nations, philanthropic organizations, and multilateral development banks.
The details are still unclear, but the issue is already on the agenda of some wealthy donors. Bill Gates, the billionaire founder of Microsoft, called for a change of thinking in October to make climate policy more effective. Governments should invest more resources in adaptation and improving life prospects, rather than focusing solely on emissions reduction targets.
For developing countries, climate negotiations are a crucial forum to discuss financial and technological hurdles, implement the energy transition, and develop solutions to combat climate change. For many of these countries, the discussion encompasses not only climate policy but also economic dimensions.
They want to discuss the barriers in the international financial market and the funds needed to expand the energy system. Furthermore, developing countries have been calling for years for the exchange of technological know-how and greater attention to adaptation to the harmful effects of climate change.
A tidal wave destroys not only villages, but also progress. Many countries are left to bear the costs – and their debts grow.
Financial support for developing countries is a major point of contention in negotiations between governments every year. At the climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, industrialized countries committed to providing $300 billion annually for climate finance until 2035.
Many developing countries criticized this result as insufficient. Work continues this year with the goal of increasing annual funding for climate action to a total of $1.3 trillion through private investors and development banks.
For Brazil, this is about more than just money. The US is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and using its political apparatus to slow down climate policy. At the same time, the green enthusiasm of recent years has given way to disillusionment.
In many countries, political resistance to the effort required for the energy transition is growing. Therefore, the negotiations in Belém in the coming weeks will also focus on giving new impetus to the climate policy agenda. The talks must demonstrate that governments from around the world are still committed to the energy transition and can find joint solutions to the dangers of climate change.
Corrêa do Lago also sees this as his task. "We must convey that there is progress on this (climate) agenda, because we are in a phase where the majority of the public believes that this agenda is losing ground," he said just a few days before the start of the conference.
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