Report links fossil fuel producers to rising heat waves

Climate change has made heatwaves over the past two decades more likely and intense, while fossil fuel and cement producers have “significantly” favored this trend, according to a report published in the scientific journal Nature on Wednesday (10).

Unlike traditional studies focusing on the impact of a specific phenomenon, the authors of this report – an international team – broke new ground by analyzing a series of 213 heat waves across the world during the period 2000-2023.

They also sought to focus specifically on the role of large hydrocarbon and cement companies, which emit greenhouse gases.

– “More intense and likely” –

"This paper demonstrates that climate change has made more than 200 heat waves more intense and likely, and that this influence will increase," Yann Quilcaille, a researcher at the Zurich Polytechnic School and lead author of the study, told AFP.

Human-caused climate change has not only made heat waves more likely, but in a quarter of cases (55 out of 213), this probability has been multiplied by at least 10,000. In other words, they would have been virtually impossible to occur without global warming.

Furthermore, the influence strengthens considerably over time, making heat waves 20 times more likely between 2000 and 2009, and 200 times more likely between 2010 and 2019.

Scientists also wanted to understand the role of the 180 largest fossil fuel and cement companies in this trend.

To make their calculations, they took into account the companies' value chain, such as how customers use the products they sell.

– Litigation on the rise –

Result: Emissions related to these large companies contributed 50% to the increase in heat wave intensity compared to the pre-industrial era and also increased their likelihood.

The role of the 14 largest companies (among which are Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, Chevron and BP) appears to be very important, as their weight is equivalent to that of the other 166 companies studied, whose role is also not insignificant.

The authors concluded that the study could “reinforce” the role of science in attribution before the courts, at a time when the number of disputes is increasing.

“The objective of our [study] is scientific,” but “we are aware of its potential” to shed light on these cases, Quilcaille said.

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