Asteroid could hit the Moon in 2032

NEWS CENTER

Creation Date: July 01, 2025 17:42

However, this danger may still be valid for the Moon. According to the latest statement by the European Space Agency (ESA), the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032 is currently around 4 percent. Although this rate still seems low, it is above the risk initially calculated for the Earth. Moreover, since the asteroid is currently out of observation, new data cannot be obtained; more precise calculations will require observations again in mid-2028 with its orbit around the Sun.

Richard Moissl, Director of ESA’s Planetary Defense Office, said the exact results of a possible collision are unknown, but it is very likely that a new crater will open up on the lunar surface. “It is very rare for an asteroid of this size to hit the Moon, and even rarer that we knew about it in advance,” Moissl said, adding that scientists are excited to observe the collision. The moment of impact will also be visible from Earth with telescopes.

According to experts, such a collision is not expected to knock the Moon out of its orbit or cause serious damage to the Earth. However, it is not yet known for sure whether some of the fragments that may be scattered into space during the impact could enter the Earth's gravitational field.

In the face of such possibilities, space agencies around the world are working to improve early warning systems. ESA plans to launch a new satellite called NEOMIR in the early 2030s. This satellite will be able to detect unknown asteroids over 197 meters in diameter by settling at the balance point between the Sun and Earth (the Lagrange Point). According to experts, NEOMIR could also detect 2024 YR4 about a month earlier than ground-based telescopes.

In short, an interesting celestial event may occur for the Moon , but not the Earth, in 2032. Both scientists and amateur sky enthusiasts are already eagerly waiting to observe this possible collision.