Cannabis legalization in Germany: First assessment and three important findings

Cannabis has been partially legal in Germany since April 2024. Private cultivation of the drug is permitted up to certain maximum quantities, but only for personal consumption. Community cultivation and distribution are only permitted in limited-membership cultivation associations, so-called social clubs. Purchase, possession, and cultivation remain prohibited for minors.

With legalization, the then traffic light government primarily wanted to curb the black market: legal ways of acquiring drugs were intended to deprive criminal dealers of their economic base.

Legalization was fiercely controversial from the outset. Therefore, the "traffic light" government enshrined regular scientific evaluation in the cannabis law. A group of researchers from the universities of Hamburg, Düsseldorf, and Tübingen has now presented an initial interim report. What are the key findings?

Cultivation associations should be the central instrument for curbing the black market. However, surveys already suggest that, at least so far, they play a negligible role. When consumers are asked about their main sources of cannabis, so-called social clubs rank at the bottom, with less than one percent. Instead, friends, acquaintances, and family are overwhelmingly cited as sources.

The cultivation associations appear even more irrelevant when considering the modeled total demand for cannabis as a benchmark. Scientists estimate that between 670 and 823 tons of cannabis will have been consumed in Germany in 2024, half of which will be consumed by a small group of regular smokers (about 16 percent).

This total demand is offset by production from four sources:

1. medical cannabis,
2. private cultivation and communal cultivation in social clubs,
3. illegal production, such as growing cannabis at home in excess of the permitted quantities or passing it on to friends and acquaintances,
4. illegal production for the classic “black market”.

According to researchers' estimates, medical cannabis accounts for approximately 9 to 13 percent of production, while cultivation associations account for less than 0.1 percent. However, it is not possible to reliably quantify how the remaining shares are distributed between private cultivation and illegal production.

Therefore, it's difficult to say to what extent the "black market" has been curbed. Although the government hasn't clearly defined the term, researchers assume that "black market" refers to illegal production with a profit motive. Since distribution among friends and acquaintances is "generally cost-covering or free of charge," it doesn't fall under this term.

The researchers compared several surveys on cannabis consumption among young people. The studies vary regarding the proportion of young people who smoked cannabis at least once in the past year. However, the results over time are much more consistent: None of the studies show an increase in consumption after partial legalization—on the contrary, consumption continued to decline even after April 2024. This is the finding of the Drug Affinity Study of the Federal Institute for Public Health, for example.

According to the Ecokan study, approximately one-tenth of young users smoke marijuana daily or almost daily, thus demonstrating risky use. However, this proportion has remained stable and does not appear to have increased due to partial legalization.

However, the researchers point out that it is still too early to conclusively assess the effect of the cannabis law.

"The partial legalization of cannabis represents, in terms of numbers, the most significant decriminalization in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany," write the authors of the Ecokan study. In fact, the number of cannabis-related crimes recorded in the crime statistics fell by more than 100,000 cases in 2024. Offenses under the new law, such as exceeding permitted cultivation limits or consumption near schools and playgrounds, do not nearly offset the decline.

For the researchers, this represents enormous potential for relief. While this doesn't yet seem to be having an impact on the work of the police and the judiciary, most police officers currently perceive the new law as more of a burden—probably because they still have to adjust to the new rules, the study authors suspect. However, the elimination of more than 100,000 cannabis offenses could have a positive impact in the future.

"The available results so far do not indicate any urgent need for action in the areas examined," the study concludes. However, "robust conclusions" regarding the effects of partial legalization cannot yet be derived from the interim results.

However, it is already becoming apparent "that cultivation associations have not yet made a relevant contribution to the displacement of the black market intended by the legislature." Without corrections, it is not to be expected that this development will change in the medium term.