Will Poland Give Up New Missiles for the F-35? That Would Be Good News for Germany

• Poland received approval to purchase 400 AIM-120D-3 AMRAAM missiles.
• This is a necessary weapon, without which our planes may have trouble gaining air superiority - writes Radosław Ditrich, analyst at WNP Economic Trends.
• Unfortunately, the lack of funds in the Ministry of National Defense treasury blocks the purchase of these missiles.
• We will discuss the challenges for the military and the economy during the "Defense Industry" conference, which will be held in Katowice on October 15.

We've known for some time that the Ministry of National Defense's finances are in a precarious state. This time, funds were insufficient to purchase the latest American air-to-air missiles, the AIM-120D-3 AMRAAM. Tomasz Dmitruk, a journalist with years of experience in arms affairs and known for his balanced opinions, doesn't mince his words. The expert notes that if the decision to cancel the purchase remains unchanged, it could be considered sabotage.

AIM-120D-3 missiles and the Polish issue

Before we thoroughly analyze the purchase of AIM-120D-3 missiles, a few issues need to be clarified. We've been writing about the financial problems at the Ministry of National Defense for a long time. For those unfamiliar with the topic, a brief explanation is in order. Defense spending consists of funds from the central budget and the Armed Forces Support Fund .

Between 2022 and 2024, we spent 2.4%, 3.3%, and 3.8% of GDP on defense, respectively. This year, it's expected to reach a record 4.7% of GDP, but it's worth remembering that the plans for 2023-2024 assumed spending at 4.2% of GDP. This level was not achieved due to a problem with spending under the Fund for the Protection of National Defense. In Poland, we currently spend approximately 3% of GDP through the central budget, with the remaining funds coming from the Fund for the Protection of National Defense.

This fund is nothing more than debt. Debt that is currently being repaid from the Ministry of National Defense (MON). This means that in the long term, the Ministry of National Defense will have to repay the money received. In 2028, we are expected to spend over PLN 40 billion on loan installments alone, or approximately 0.9% of projected GDP. Expenditures from 2022-2025, which were not aligned with the state's financial capabilities, have resulted in a current shortage of funds in the state treasury.

The AIM-120D-3 purchase was to be financed with funds raised through the Fund for the Missile Defense (FWSZ) . Before such an agreement can be signed, it must be approved by the Minister of Finance. He conditioned his approval on the Ministry of National Defense guaranteeing that the ministry would have the funds to pay. However, this money was apparently not found at the Ministry of National Defense , as the procurement process for these missiles was halted.

This was initially announced by former Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak. The politician's words were confirmed during the last meeting of the parliamentary subcommittee on the Polish defense industry and the technical modernization of the Armed Forces. We wrote about what we learned from the last meeting a few days ago. However, let's focus on the missile issue itself. We learned that the lack of consent from the steering group (composed of representatives of the National Economy Bank, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of National Defense) to conclude the contract is a fact.

Why does Poland need AIM-120D-3 missiles?

We already know that there are currently no funds in the budget to allocate for AIM-120D-3 missiles . It's hard to expect the government's coffers to be a bottomless pit. Even Americans are having to sacrifice some of their needs and focus on priorities. Is the purchase of the AIM-120D-3 one of those priorities? According to most experts, yes. Why? We'll explain.

Aviation plays a crucial role on the modern battlefield. Ukraine perfectly illustrates this. Where the Russians achieve local air superiority, they are capable of bombarding Ukrainian positions using 500-kilogram aerial bombs. This weapon allows the Kremlin to crush resistance even on the most prepared front lines.

Modern fighter jets and missiles are needed to gain air superiority. The days of spectacular Top Gun-style combat are gone, and today, what matters is the distance at which you can detect the enemy and how far you can send your missiles. The distance at which we detect an enemy aircraft depends on our sensors (e.g., onboard radar) and the effective reflectivity (radar waves). The F-35 aircraft we purchased are characterized by limited detectability and a modern radar station.

However, there's a problem with the second piece of the puzzle. The range of air-to-air missiles depends on both the missile itself and its carrier. The higher and faster a given aircraft flies, the farther it can send the missile (because it imparts more energy upon launch). The F-35 isn't a classic aircraft for achieving air superiority—it's slower than the F-15EX, F-22, Eurofighter, or the Russian Su-35 and Su-57, and it doesn't fly as high as them. This doesn't mean it's inferior—it's simply designed for different roles.

The range of the missiles themselves is also a problem. Poland has the AIM-120C-5 and C-7 missiles, with a declared range of approximately 120 km. Russia, on the other hand, has the R-37M missile, with a range likely exceeding 200 km. An Izdeliya missile for the Su-57 is also being developed, with an even greater range.

The American response is the AIM-260 JATM missile, which is expected to have a range of over 200 km. This new weapon is still under development.

Another missile is ready, the AIM-120D-3. This is a new version of the AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missile, which is expected to have a significantly greater range . How much? The Americans won't officially admit this, but the Polish Armaments Agency has reported that the range is expected to be around 180 km . Other sources suggest 160 km. So we're talking about a weapon that will allow our F-35s to engage Russian Su-35 and Su-57 fighters.

Poland needs such weapons

The AIM-120D-3 is one of three solutions to this problem. The other is the aforementioned AIM-260 JATM , but the weapon is currently unavailable. The European Meteor missile is also available for purchase. This missile is said to have a range of over 200 km. The weapon differs slightly from the American AIM-120. The key difference is the propulsion system: the AIM-120 AMRAAM uses a traditional solid-fuel rocket engine, while the MBDA Meteor is equipped with a ramjet engine, which provides a longer powered flight phase and higher kinetic energy in the final stage of intercept (the so-called no-escape zone). This allows the Meteor to maintain speed and maneuverability at much greater ranges than the AIM-120, making it more difficult for the target to evade.

The problem, however, is that the Meteor has not yet been integrated with the F-35A. This missile can be used with the Eurofighter . Add to this the aircraft's higher operational ceiling and speed, and you can understand why Air Force Inspector General Ireneusz Nowak has repeatedly mentioned in interviews that he would love to see a Eurofighter-Meteor combination in the Polish Air Force. However, such aircraft won't appear in Poland for many years (if ever), so the acquisition of the AIM-120D-3 becomes a key element in the air defense puzzle.

Poland has made several important purchases in recent years. Any arms deal with the U.S. must be preceded by congressional approval for its export. On March 12, 2024, the Americans agreed to purchase three types of missiles: 821 AGM0158B-2 JASSM-ER (an air-to-surface missile with a range of approximately 1,000 km) for a maximum of $1.77 billion, 745 AIM-120C-8 AMRAAMs for a maximum of $1.68 billion, and 232 AIM-9X Sidewinder Block II (a missile with greater maneuverability but shorter range than the AIM-120) for a maximum of $219 million. On April 24, we additionally received approval to purchase up to 360 AGM-88G AARGM-ER (missiles designed to destroy enemy air defenses) for no more than $1.275 billion.

On May 28, 2024, Poland purchased 400 JASSM-ERs for $735 million , on August 9, several hundred (probably around 400) AIM-120C-8s for $850 million , and on November 29, 232 AIM-9Xs for $175 million . On January 28, 2025, these purchases were supplemented by the aforementioned AARGM-ERs. More than 200 were likely purchased for $1.33 billion . This year, we received two more approvals. On April 30, the Americans agreed to sell us up to 400 AIM-120D-3s for no more than $1.33 billion, and on May 21, up to 1,400 GBU-39/B SDB bombs for $180 million. The bombs were purchased during the MSPO trade fair in Kielce in September, where approximately 900-1,000 pieces were probably acquired for a total of USD 120 million.

The purchase of older versions of the AIM-120 and the short-range AIM-9X missiles is crucial. It's good that they have also been supplemented by the JASSM-ER and AARGM-ER air-to-ground missiles, which will allow us to eliminate enemy air defenses and strike airfields and headquarters. However, the lack of an implementation agreement for the AIM-120D-3 remains a problem. This weapon offers significantly better performance than the purchased AIM-120C-8s , allowing for greater utilization of the capabilities of the F-35 aircraft, which will arrive in Poland next year, making its purchase crucial.

The AIM-120D-3 is not a weapon for everyone.

Poland belongs to a small group of countries permitted to purchase the latest American air-to-air missiles. How small a group are we talking about? These are just four countries: Australia, Finland, Poland, and Germany, countries that can be considered the closest allies of the United States. Poland was the second ally to obtain approval, three weeks after Australia . In early July, Canberra signed a contract for the purchase of missiles worth $1.04 billion.

Poland could also wait for its missiles, but there's still no agreement. How much money is missing? Considering that the Americans wanted to sell over 400 missiles for no more than $1.33 billion, purchasing half that number would likely cost around $0.5 billion, or less than 2 billion złoty.

This amount shouldn't hold back the purchase. For comparison, as recently as 2024, Poland was able to easily spend $1.6 billion on an additional 72 K239 Chunmoo launchers (on top of the 218 already ordered). Last July, we signed a contract for 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters for $10 billion.

This whole situation seems completely incomprehensible. Tomasz Dmitruk, a well-known journalist specializing in military affairs for many years, claims that if the decision not to fund the AIM-120D-3 remains unchanged in the current security environment, this action could be described as sabotage . These are strong words, especially considering that their author is known for being very cautious in formulating such statements.

If we want to avoid such situations, we should learn from mistakes.

According to Dmitruk, if Poland has decided to purchase such advanced machines as the F-35, while building a complex and expensive infrastructure, it should not give up on purchasing basic armament for these aircraft, which could give them an advantage in a potential fight against Russian combat aircraft.

"The funds for this purpose simply must be found, even at the expense of other needs, especially considering the current threats. The General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces declares that in the new "Development Program of the Polish Armed Forces for 2025-2039," one of the seven priorities is to be "Air dominance and the ability to perform deep precision strikes." The purchase of AIM-120D-3 missiles can therefore be considered a test of how seriously these priorities will be taken," we read in an article by Tomasz Dmitruk in "Dziennik Zbrojny."

Before we begin to blame, it's worth understanding that the situation is complex. On the one hand, under the previous government, we saw an increase in central budget subsidies for military expansion. The law introduced in 2022 guaranteed an increase in spending on the Ministry of National Defense to 3% of GDP. On the other hand, these funds proved far too low , considering the highly ambitious plans to create six divisions and order hundreds of gun-howitzers and rocket launchers.

The new government did little to remedy this situation. In 2024, Poland ordered, among other things, 96 Apache helicopters for $10 billion. If the number of these helicopters were reduced to the initially planned 32, the money would be sufficient not only for AIM-120D-3 missiles but also for other military equipment.

The lack of an order means that our slots (i.e. pre-booked production capacity) can be occupied by other buyers - e.g. Germany, who declare their willingness to purchase several hundred missiles of this type.

Why won't we buy these weapons? As previously mentioned, the problem lies primarily in the insufficient funds allocated for defense from the central budget. However, the central budget is currently facing a record deficit, which is the result not only of increased military spending but also of repaying debt incurred during the pandemic and following the introduction of the Local Government Revenue Act. Experts argue that this act was necessary to strengthen and stabilize local government finances, as they had suffered significantly following the introduction of the New Deal by the previous government. However, the New Deal provided a significant boost to the post-pandemic economy, and the increased state debt between 2020 and 2022 was necessary.

As you can see, the situation today is complex . It's easy to list the controversial spending of recent years, but it's also important to understand that military equipment shortages are the result of years of neglect. The current situation teaches us that the development of the Polish Armed Forces and state finances should be considered long-term. Between 2016 and 2019, Poland's public debt fell from 54.1% to 45.2% of GDP. If military spending had been 1% higher during that period, our debt-to-GDP ratio would have continued to decline, and the army would be in a completely different situation today. Perhaps there would have been no need to incur debt under the FWSZ, and the problems discussed here would never have occurred.